The Sword of Damocles
The fog of war they call it, where truth, a precious commodity at all times, well actually, truth is always so rare it can never be called a commodity, but when the bombs are exploding, truth's a very, very difficult to thing find, certainly in the pages of the New York Times or on the floors of any given exchange.
That said, from the oil pits, today’s FT relays:
Doug King, head of RCMA’s Merchant Commodity Fund, predicted that oil prices would soar to between $200 and $250 a barrel this year. “This is not transitory. This is going to be a crude supply shock,” he said.
Now for someone who's been watching and futilely attempting to get oil addicted America to pay attention to this energy Sword of Damocles, well for literally a lifetime, the only thing I can say is, “Phew! That'd be something.”
At the same time, if oil reaches such heights, it won't be for long. The US economy would grind to a halt so fast, what was it Lenin said laying next to Trotsky on the floor backstage waiting to seize the Duma, “It makes the head spin.”
After decades of doing not one damn thing about oil, America hears a growing chorus from the top of our political and economic elites, “Sacrifice! Sacrifice! Sacrifice!” For democracy they say, but $200 a barrel oil would be a hard audit across an entire system grown entirely unaccountable over the last half-century. Necessary changes denied for decades would come in days. Rebuilding democracy at home, another topic I’ve been on about for longer than I care to think, would be an essential best way to meet the challenges posed, but if I could go to an online exchange and get some sort of democracy derivative, I’d bet against it.